The highly anticipated U.S. non-farm payroll report for January is poised to be released tonight, and it comes at a crucial moment, coinciding with the annual revision of data that could significantly influence the Federal Reserve's future actionsThis report, being published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is expected to reveal a substantial slowdown in job growth, forecasting an increase of just 170,000 jobs, a stark decline from the previous figure of 256,000 and marking the lowest rate in three months.

The reasons for this decline include potential setbacks from external factors such as the devastating wildfires in Los Angeles and harsh winter weather, which may have collectively contributed to the loss of around 40,000 and 30,000 jobs respectivelyConsequently, Morgan Stanley has revised its job growth prediction down to 140,000 for the month.

In the meantime, the unemployment rate is anticipated to remain stable at 4.1%. Wage growth is expected to inch up by 0.3% month-on-month, translating to an annual increase of 3.8%. If expectations hold true, this would represent the lowest annual wage growth since July 2024.

A central focal point of this non-farm report will be the significant annual revision of employment data covering the twelve months up to March 2024. Economists anticipate that the downward adjustment could range between 600,000 to 700,000 jobs, slightly lower than initial estimatesNotably, previous estimations made in August had pointed towards a staggering adjustment of 818,000 jobs, the most substantial decrease since 2009.

Furthermore, the anticipated annual benchmark revision is expected to indicate a population increase of 3.5 million and an uptick in household employment by 2.3 million, setting a new historical recordMedia sources also predict that these population adjustments may result in a 5 basis point rise in January's unemployment rate.

One of the most significant aspects of the non-farm report will be the annual benchmark adjustment, which ties the survey's non-institutional population to the newly released census forecasts

Advertisements

This recalibration will lead to necessary corrections in metrics such as labor force, household employment, and other related variables.

In the aftermath of the pandemic, stark differences have emerged in the BLS's two types of surveysOne survey, which calculates non-farm employment, differs markedly from the household survey that determines the unemployment rateThe latter has a more pessimistic outlook on employment conditions, yet there is potential to rectify this through the forthcoming revisions.

Goldman Sachs has previously indicated that January's non-farm report could reflect the most significant adjustments in history, with a considerable recalibration of immigration data due to the population census conducted in December, which revised net immigration estimates upward by 3.5 million for the years between 2021-2024. Following this reestimation, overall labor force numbers are anticipated to increase by 2.5 million, household employment by 2.3 million, and the labor force participation rate by 0.11 percentage points, albeit with an accompanying slight rise in the unemployment rate by 0.04 percentage points.

As the overall population and immigration figures undergo recalibration, the number of newly created jobs is predicted to experience a notable declineEconomists predict that the actual downward revision for January's non-farm employment data could reach as high as 600,000 to 700,000 jobs.

When preliminary revision data is released in August 2024, it is expected to reveal that the number of jobs added from April 2023 to March 2024 is down by 818,000 compared to prior reports, marking the steepest decline since 2009. Alarmingly, such news might prompt the Federal Reserve to react hastily, as seen previously when they cut interest rates by 50 basis points only weeks later.

Of note, immigration has historically played a pivotal role in employment growthGoldman Sachs has indicated that younger Hispanic and Asian populations exhibit higher labor force participation rates that exceed the averages for the general population

Advertisements

Advertisements

Advertisements

Advertisements