Are You Still Focused on Stock Prices?

It is well-known that the investment genius Warren Buffett has excelled in his endeavors, gaining significant fame in the investment world. So why can he achieve such remarkable success while our own investments often yield mediocre results? The answer is simple: Buffett's methods are undoubtedly different from ours; otherwise, employing the same strategies would not lead to different outcomes.

One of Buffett's unique investment skills lies in his approach to stock price observation. Now, let me pose a question: if we were to study a stock right now, would we look at its price, and when would we do so? The inevitable response would be: of course, we need to observe the price!

In fact, many people not only observe the price but also treat it as the sole determining factor: "This stock has dropped significantly lately; it seems risky," or "That stock has continuously risen; there must be some positive news worth investigating." Reflect for a moment: do you often hear such sentiments in the market?

Even for investors who focus on relative valuation (like myself), price considerations frequently enter the decision-making process. For instance, one might say, "This stock is currently valued at 0.2 times its price-to-book ratio (PB), and I believe it might rise to 0.3 times; a 50% increase is substantial." Such discussions may appear to analyze valuation, but they are, in fact, speculations on stock prices.

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However, what sets Buffett apart from the rest is precisely this: he pays little attention to stock prices and even asserts that price should not be considered when analyzing a stock. Perhaps this is one of the secrets behind Buffett's investment success.

In a speech given to MBA students at the University of Kansas in 2005, Buffett stated: "Before I study a stock, I prefer not to know its price. I like to calculate what I believe the stock is worth and then compare that number with its current trading price. If I already know the trading price beforehand, the information might influence my analysis."

Buffett actually prefers not to see a stock's price before analyzing it! This distinction is what separates the oracle from countless investors. For Buffett, it is crystal clear that the current trading price of a stock has no bearing on its true value; a stock priced at 1 yuan may genuinely be worth 15 yuan, while a stock priced at 100 yuan might only have a real value of 2 yuan. Therefore, since there is no correlation, it is best to avoid looking at price information altogether before evaluating a company's worth.

In reality, for the vast majority of investors, being aware of the current price beforehand often leads to preconceived notions about the stock's value. For instance, with a surging stock, one might instinctively think, perhaps there is good news? Conversely, if a stock has plummeted, it might lead to the assumption that the company is facing serious issues.

When we approach stock analysis with such biases, it becomes difficult to avoid misjudgments in our evaluations. This leads us to chase after high prices or sell low, and this high-buy-low-sell behavior is precisely the root of many investors' losses.

Indeed, the fluctuations in the stock market are vast and unpredictable. In our daily lives, we tend to think linearly; for example, receiving praise from a superior at work today often leads us to expect favorable treatment from colleagues tomorrow, or if we are happy with our partner today, we assume tomorrow will bring similar joy. However, when this linear thinking is applied to the stock market, we quickly realize it is ineffective: yesterday’s stock price can have no relation to tomorrow’s price.

When individuals use everyday linear thinking to predict future stock prices based on past performance, rather than comparing prices to the stock's true value, we fall into a significant trap.

For example, from 1965 to 1978, the S&P 500 Index in the United States entered a prolonged period of stagnation. The index closed at 92.43 points in 1965 and only reached 96.11 points by the end of 1978—a span of 13 years with virtually no growth.

During this time, many investors became deeply disillusioned with the S&P 500; how could such a poor index be worthwhile for investment? However, in the following 13 years, the S&P 500 rallied from 96.11 points at the end of 1978 to 417.09 points by the end of 1991, leaving those who hesitated to invest because of the index’s stagnation filled with regret.

Instead of merely envying Buffett's remarkable investment achievements, we must ground ourselves in learning each of his specific investment methods and techniques, or else we will remain stuck in awe.

When our investment skills align more closely with those of Buffett, the returns we achieve will surely leave us content. Refraining from looking at stock prices before analysis is just one of Buffett's many investment techniques. Now, have you learned this technique? Will you genuinely apply it in your investments?